Some thoughts for the day.
Unlike the majority of competing technologies Lightwaves Polymer is Proprietary. That means that its performance is limited directly by Lightwave management via Non-Disclosure Agreements. First they must convince JM and Lebby of their intentions, potential, and their history. If they are determined to be a "friendly" they can proceed. They are not going to reveal information publicly so most will just be left to guess. Naturally occurring materials can be obtained on the open market regardless of ones intention. Naturally those working with it will release information often about their progress as it is human nature to make others think they are “winning”.
Until recently Silicon photonics could keep up, but fortunately for Lightwave it has reached the limits of its natural performance in speed and also it is not very sensitive therefore it requires an additional component to boost the voltage of the data rolling off the silicon computers (as electrons) to convert it to photons to be moved around, between and cross town, then it is converted back to electrons at the other end. Lightwaves polymer is added directly to silicon in a foundry so not only will it converts the data at triple the speed but it also does not require the expensive and bulky component to boost the voltage, oh and it also saves space. So, what they end up with is 3 times the speed using 1/10 the power and in 1/30th the space.
There will be others in polymers this space for sure but what Lebby was able to do while improving the speed and stability of the polymer was to submit patent after patent to put up a moat around this space so that even when someone creates a competing polymer they cannot use it in an area where Lebby has a blocking patent without knocking on Lightwaves door with a bag of money in their hand.
Lightwave has not only the device patents but also the methods of mass producing it are patent protected. Remember that Lightwave has 4 versions of Perkinamine and their patents cover not only Lightaves Perkinaine but other high performing polymers. The rumor has it that there are a handful of both Tier1’s along with their foundries putting this through the rigors of mass production for adoption. The foundries have been working it for over 2 years documenting process development kits (PDKs) so when given the word production should not be costly.
In 2022 Lightwave was producing modulators in gold-boxes to do performance testing and evaluation of the polymer and Lightwave acquired the patents to protect polymers using Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD). ALD is a well known process used by foundries to protect Silicon. Think about that now Lightwave has the patents to ALD protection for “polymers” in foundries. In 2023 they expanded the testing and laboratory space by 9,000 square feet and hired staff to hand the ramp. We are just about there.
The price of a publicly stock is influenced by many things, for the most part supply and demand, we see that short count is currently at about 20 Million. That is 20 Million extra shares than actually exist. Typically, some shorts will sell shares in the thousand (say 5k) in the first second of the trading day. This typically produces a knee jerk reaction so some immediately post negative things here in response to that. They buy and sell throughout the day and at the close they cover just after the bell in the dark at a price again that is worked down in the final hour. It is a game because many dwell on the first and last price of the day shorts know the game well but they still have 20 Million shares to cover someday. When buys exceed sells it typically bumps the price by about 1 Penny per thousand, let me look Oh my there are more sells than buys and yet the price is up, Kew my me. Think about that, 12:30 less than 100k shares traded the shorts could slam this easily but then they are deeper with not enough volume to enable them to get out of that hole.
Shorts do their best to plant seeds of doubt and because Lightwaves material is proprietary it is not publicized, so it is easy for them to do. Authors can only write about what data they have, so I take those articles with a grain of salt.
X
Bullish
